Climate change perception, vulnerability and adaptation among smallholder farmers in Machakos County, Kenya

Abstract

The unprecedented changes resulting from rapid and intensifying climate change have created extremely uncertain conditions for agricultural production, especially in ASALs. Farmers should, therefore, build resilience through appropriate adaptation strategies to cope with the new and emerging impacts of climate change and variability. This study was conducted to understand the awareness and perception of climate change and variability, its impacts on local agriculture, and to identify the most appropriate adaptive strategies for smallholder farmers to enhance resilience building in Machakos County. The study employed a mixed methods approach in which both qualitative and quantitative techniques were used. Field observations and 400 household surveys were conducted with smallholder farmers in the County. Questionnaires, interviews, field observations, and desk research techniques and tools were used to generate the relevant data. In addition, focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) were conducted in the area. Data from FGD and KII complemented the survey results. The data analysis was done by descriptive statistics and econometric model (Heckman’s sample selection model). The statistical package for social scientists (SPSS) program for windows (version 20) and STATA software (version 12) were used for qualitative and quantitative analysis. Descriptive statistics were used to investigate the impacts of climate change, analyse farmers' perceptions of climate change, and the potential response and adaptation strategies to climate impacts. The study adopted the indicator and systematic review approach to document the agricultural sector's vulnerability to climate change. Heckman’s probit regression model was used to analyse factors influencing the smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and variability and the choice of response options (adaptations) to climate impact applied by the households. Descriptive statistics of key variables were computed, analysed, and presented in frequency distributions, percentages, tables and charts. The study results show significant impacts from climate change and variability in Machakos County, 88.8% of smallholder farmers reported low yields, 82.3%, loss of income, 81.1%, crop failure, 69.0%, livestock deaths, 65.2%, forage scarcity, 64.0%, water shortage, and 53.3% infrastructure damage. In addition, the results revealed high exposure to climate change and variability, high sensitivity, and low adaptive capacity. Concerning exposure, a warming trend was identified in the County, while climate model outputs projected enhanced warming and drying towards the end of the 21st century. The farming systems were highly sensitive to climate change and variability, as indicated by high incidences of droughts, high rural population density, a high percentage of smallholder farmers, and severe high susceptibility to land degradation. Adaptive capacity was generally low but exhibited by substantial social capital and highly diversified agricultural production. The study's results also revealed that 96% of all the smallholder farmers surveyed reported they were aware of climate change. Of those who perceived the climate to be changing, 87.3% reported changes in temperature, 96.8% in rainfall while 98% of farmers indicated that they had observed an increase in drought incidents, Age of the household head, gender, education, access to extension services, access to climate information, off-farm income, household size, distance to market, access to credit, access to insurance, distance to input seller, land size and group membership, influenced the farmers' perception of climate change and variability. The study showed that farmers most farmers (92.2%) adopted several practices to cope with the current climate risks with only 7.8% of the respondents using none. The study findings suggest that some climate change- related responses to agricultural distress are inadequate to cope with the current climate risks. This indicates that farmers may be unable to cope with increasing climate change and variability. Additionally, most farmers (92.5%) foresee a likelihood of impacts of climate change and variability and change worsening in the future. The study recommends an enhancement and/or a shift to more resilient and environmentally sustainable strategies, which include: diversification of livelihoods, water harvesting/Irrigation, mixed farming, crop diversification, tree planting/agroforestry, improved pasture and fodder management, construction of sheds for livestock, improved crop varieties and livestock breeds, drought- tolerant crops and livestock breeds, conservation agriculture, and more use of weather and climate information.