Effects of climate change on the availability of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) in the Kavonge and Museve hilltop forests in Kitui County, Kenya

Abstract

A study to evaluate the effects of climate change on the availability of Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) was conducted in forest-dependent communities around Kavonge and Museve hilltop forests in Kitui County, Kenya. The specific study objectives were: (1) to assess local community perception of rainfall and temperature patterns on NTFPs availability in Kavonge and Museve hilltop forests, (2) to examine the rainfall and temperature trends around the Kavonge and Museve hilltop forests from 1993 to 2023, (3) to establish a relationship between the availability of NTFPs and distance to the forest edge from the household, and (4) to identify the coping measures adopted by communities in response to the effect of climate change on NTFPs. Two villages were purposively selected based on their closeness to the forests. Data was collected using structured questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Primary data was collected from individual households through a systematic sampling method. Secondary data collected over 30 years was obtained from the Kitui County weather station for rainfall and temperature. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics (frequencies, percentages, bar charts), logistic regression, linear regression, correlation, and trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A sample size of 120 respondents was selected for the study. Logistic regression model results revealed that age, education, occupation, and resident duration significantly (p < 0.05) influence community perception of climate change patterns on NTFPs availability in the area. The perception results reported that most respondents perceived variations with a 96% increase in temperature and a 100% decrease in rainfall in the study area. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope results showed that there had been an increase in temperature trend in the past 30 years (Kendall Tau 0.820, p< 0.05, and Sen’s Slope 0.015) and a decrease in rainfall (Kendall Tau -0.672, p< 0.05 and Sen’s Slope -0.022). This was also in line with the people's perception of the temperature and rainfall patterns of the study area. The linear regression results showed a positive relationship between the amount of NTFPs collected and the distance covered to the forest with significance (p<0.000, R2= 0.797 and β -893). Also, the study reported that the respondents in Kavonge and Museve use different types of coping and adaptation measures, which include diversification of crops, livestock keeping, late planting, petty trading, use of NTFPs, tree planting, and use of fertilizer to cope with adverse effects of climate change and variability on NTFPs. It was confirmed by the findings that Kavonge and Museve forests edge communities still rely on the available NTFPs as a safety net when faced with unfavorable circumstances, such as crop failure due to climate change. However, it was reported that the available quantities of NTFP are declining due to climate change. The study concludes that available NTFPs will continue to decrease if stringent sustainable utilization and management measures are not implemented. The Community Forest Association (Musekavo) is recommended to continue training the forest communities in the study area on sustainable utilization and management of Non-Timber Forest Products.