Mathematical modelling of covid-19 transmission in Kenya: a model with reinfection transmission mechanism

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dc.contributor.author Wangari, Isaac M.
dc.contributor.author Sewe, Stanley
dc.contributor.author Kimathi, George
dc.contributor.author Wainaina, Mary
dc.contributor.author Kitetu, Virginia
dc.contributor.author Kaluki, Winnie
dc.date.accessioned 2022-02-08T09:14:07Z
dc.date.available 2022-02-08T09:14:07Z
dc.date.issued 2021-10
dc.identifier.citation Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Volume 2021 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1748-670X
dc.identifier.issn 1748-6718
dc.identifier.uri https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm/2021/5384481/
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.seku.ac.ke/handle/123456789/6746
dc.description DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5384481 en_US
dc.description.abstract In this study we propose a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mathematical model that stratifies infectious subpopulations into: infectious asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic infectious individuals who manifest mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms. In light of the recent revelation that reinfection by COVID-19 is possible, the proposed model attempt to investigate how reinfection with COVID-19 will alter the future dynamics of the recent unfolding pandemic. Fitting the mathematical model on the Kenya COVID-19 dataset, model parameter values were obtained and used to conduct numerical simulations. Numerical results suggest that reinfection of recovered individuals who have lost their protective immunity will create a large pool of asymptomatic infectious individuals which will ultimately increase symptomatic individuals with mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms (critically ill) needing urgent medical attention. The model suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 will lead to an increase in cumulative reported deaths. Comparison of the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on curbing COVID19 proliferation suggests that wearing face masks profoundly reduce COVID-19 prevalence than maintaining social/physical distance. Further, numerical findings reveal that increasing detection rate of asymptomatic cases via contact tracing, testing and isolating them can drastically reduce COVID-19 surge, in particular individuals who are critically ill and require admission into intensive care. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Hindawi en_US
dc.title Mathematical modelling of covid-19 transmission in Kenya: a model with reinfection transmission mechanism en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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