Abstract:
Climate change is one of the most important constraints to agricultural production and food insecurity in
marginal areas that rely on rain-fed production systems. Climate data for two analogue locations in semi-arid
eastern Kenya was analyzed using Instat Plus V3.4 statistical package with the aim of determining changes and
variability in seasonal and annual rainfall and temperatures, percentages of seasons with adequate rainfall for
maize production, probabilities of dry spells in October–December rainfall season, and accumulated rainfall and
soil moisture content relations at different maize growth stages. Analysis gave declining trends in both seasonal
and annual rainfall amounts at rates between 0.15 and 2.1 mm per annum and increase of 0.040C and 0.030C in
mean maximum and minimum annual temperatures, respectively. This is indicative of changes in climate and
hence the need for early exploration of necessary mitigation strategies by all stakeholders and policy makers.
There were high chances (> 90% probability) of dry spells in October and high percentages of seasons having
less than 250 mm rainfall compared to those with more than 450 mm. Rainfall was low and poorly distributed
over the crop growing season and soil moisture remained low even during periods of high crop water demand
signifying the high risk involved in maize production and the need for introduction and popularization of
alternative crops as well as water conservation measures during months of high rainfall. It also calls for
specification of specific crops to be grown in the two seasons with different rainfall expectations.
