Geographic Determinants of Poverty in Rural Kenya: A National and Provincial Analysis.

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between poverty incidence and geographical conditions within rural Locations (administrative areas that usually contain several communities) in Kenya. Evidence from poverty maps for Keny a and other developi ng countries suggests that poverty and income dist ribution are not homogenous, with wide spatial variability. We use spatial regression techniques to explore the effects of ge ographic factors on poverty. The results show mixed effects of geographic va riables at national vers us provincial levels. Slope, soil type, distance/travel time to public resources, elevation, type of land use, demographic and income inequality variables prove to be significant in explaining spatial patterns of poverty. However, di fferential influence of thes e and other factors at the Location-level shows that Provinces in Kenya are highly heteroge neous; hence different spatial factors are important in explaining welfare levels in different areas within Provinces, suggested targeted pro-poor pol icies are needed. Policy simulations are conducted to explore the impact of various in terventions on Location-level poverty levels. Investments in roads and improvements in soil fertility both are shown to potentially reduce poverty rates, with differential im pacts in different regions of Kenya.