Modelling the impact of spread of human papillomavirus infections under vaccination in Kenya

Abstract

Human Papillomavirus (HPV), a sexually transmitted virus is a collection of more than 40 types of viruses, some of which are linked to several cancers. HPV type 16 and HPV type 18 are accountable for 70% of cervical cancer cause. Besides cervical cancer, HPV has been linked to several cancers such as anal cancer, oropharyngeal cancer and neck cancer. Mathematical models have been used in the evaluation of control strategies and making of health policies. Very few mathematical models have been developed on HPV awareness in Kenya. In this study we developed a deterministic model on the impact of HPV infection under vaccination. In this model we incorporated an ineffective media awareness. We computed the equilibrium points of the model and local and global stability analysis was conducted on the reproduction number. The numerical simulation results show that the HPV infections continue to stay in the community due to the ineffective mass media awareness. Sensitivity analysis show that the infection contact rate𝜷_𝟏𝟏and negative attitudes influencing condom use rate 𝜹𝒄are parameters that contribute to the persistence of HPV infections in the community.