Climate factors as determinants of food security in semi - arid Kenya: a longitudinal analysis

Abstract

Food security in the arid and semi-arid areas (ASALs) of Kenya is linked to climate and socio-economic factors. T his study was conducted in two ASAL counties of Kenya , Kajiado and Makueni , inhabited by pastoral communities . Both primary and secondary data were collected on climate and socio - economic aspects from published and unpublished documents . Time series data covering a 31 year period were collected on rainfall amounts, rain days, temperature , beef and maize prices, stocking, livestock sales and land under cultivation to generate descriptive statistics and regression results based on the OLS, GLS and AR models . Livestock contributed 78.2% and 38.3% of total income in Kajiado and Makueni Counties respectively . Crops contributed more to the total income in Makueni County at 5 2.7% compared to Kajiado County at 6.9% . Of the three models tested, the GLS was found to be the most appropriate based on the number of significant variables and the estimated R 2 value. The model showed that rainfall, temperature, rain days, and beef and maize prices influence income in Kajiado and Makueni Counties. Therefore, creation of micro - climate s through agroforestry moderate s temperatures, attract s rainfall, sequester s carbon and provides services such as food, timber, raw materials and employment . Moreover, initiatives that regulate beef and maize prices ensure predictable market s and income in both counties