Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and October- December rainfall variability over Kenya

Abstract

Rainfall performance and variability are the major problems that affect many socio-economic activities in Kenya. This study investigates the relationship between the North Atlantic Ocean Oscillation (NAO) Index and October – December (OND) rainfall variability over Kenya. Rainfall, wind, geopotential height, temperature, moiture transport and NAO Index (NAOI) values for the period 1961 - 2010 are investigated. The region experiences rainfall that is highly variable in space and time; with the country generally experiencing bimodal rainfall. There is an insignificant negative correlation between the OND rainfall and NAOI over most parts of the country except for the Lake Victoria region that experiences significant correlation at 90% significance level. The study recommends further research on how the NAOI can be used as a predictor for OND seasonal rainfall over the lake region.