Drought monitoring in Kenya: A case of Tana River County

Abstract

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to assess past, present and projected drought conditions while Mann Kendall trend test and coefficient of variability is used for trend analysis. Observed data from National Meteorological and Hydrological Centre in Kenya and simulated data based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A18 and A2 from Providing Region Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) Model and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 Wm·2 and RCP 6,0 Wm·2 from Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) were used, Observed datasets (rainfall and temperature), projected temperature (A18 and A2, RCP 4.5 Wm"2 and RCP 6.0Wm" 2) and rainfall (A2 and RCP 6.0 Wm"2) all showed monotonic trend. A18 scenario had no significant trend. Decreasing patterns observed from SPI values based on observations showed increase in dry conditions. Although projected rainfall showed a decreasing trend, the frequency and magnitude of drought events increased under all future scenarios. Risk analysis based on observed data showed that north and central region of Tana River county were susceptible to intense droughts conditions and projected shift northwards under all scenarios. The susceptibility of the region to drought conditions is thus expected to increase conflicts due to limited water resources, pasture and food insecurity in the region and thus limit achievement of Kenya's long term development envisioned in the Vision 2030.